Three key questions for Mexico
By Adrian Melville
Mexico's final round of World Cup qualifying was supposed to be the continuation of what looked like a golden age of football within the country. The country captured a U-17 World Cup in 2011, followed by Olympic gold in 2012, and on top of that the senior team marched to a perfect third round of CONCACAF World Cup qualifying, outscoring opponents 15-2. At that point, it appeared Mexico had established itself as the regional power not just in its current state, but also for years to come.
That all changed in the hexagonal round of World Cup qualifying, where a fourth-place finish, with an assist from the U.S., forced Mexico into a two-leg playoff with Oceania Confederation champion New Zealand, and prompted four coaching changes over a six-week span.
The team and its supporters hope that ugliness is behind them, and current manager Miguel Herrera has already named his 23-man roster in hopes that the team can take extra time to build chemistry going into the World Cup. Still, there is apprehension among Mexico supporters given the team's recent past and based on Herrera's selections for the final roster. Here are three key questions Mexico faces less than a month before it begins its quest to advance past the World Cup quarterfinals for the first time since 1986.
What role will Carlos Salcido play?
Herrera has not called Salcido in to play for Mexico since taking over as manager in October, even though the defender had participated in eight of the team's 10 hexagonal-round games. Given that Herrera prefers to play a 5-3-2 formation -- where the outside backs have a deeper starting point to get forward and essentially serve as outside midfielders -- it is difficult to imagine what role the 34-year-old Salcido will play as a member of the 23-man roster.
If Herrera envisions Salcido as depth at the outside back position, the manager will first need to determine what side is best for the Tigres defender to reside on. Salcido was a staple on the left side for Mexico throughout qualifying and ranked third on the team with 64.1 touches per 90 minutes (minimum five appearances), but in the 2014 Clausura the versatile defender spent most of his time on the right side and ranked third on Tigres with 64.7 touches per 90 minutes.
Salcido has displayed an ability to get forward for both club and country, and even though he completed 85 percent of his passes in the attacking half playing predominantly on the right side with Tigres compared to an 80 percent completion rate on the left for Mexico, the defender also created 1.0 chance per 90 minutes in World Cup qualifying as opposed to just 0.5 per 90 minutes in the 2014 Clausura.
Salcido's inclusion in the final 23-man roster despite no previous call-ups by Herrera is a signal that the manager has not completely settled on either outside back position, and the fact that he used three different pairings in the outside back positions through recent friendlies suggests that this is a significant issue. Meanwhile, the team's group-stage opponents include Brazilian star Neymar, who ranks second in La Liga with 9.9 take-ons per 90 minutes, and a Croatia team that ranked third in 2014 UEFA qualifying with 28.2 cross attempts per game. So Herrera will undoubtedly be watching this position closely over the next month.
Will Javier Hernandez lead Mexico's attack?
Hernandez became the star of the Mexican national team at the 2010 World Cup, and in the following four seasons with Manchester United, he further cemented his status in his country's starting lineup. But even though Hernandez led all Mexico players with 807 minutes throughout the 10-game hexagonal round, he provided just two goals (both in a 2-2 draw versus Honduras), and he seems to be suffering from a crisis in confidence for both club and country.
The concern with Hernandez's form is not entirely new, as the 25-year-old striker has seen his club minutes decline every season since joining United in 2010-11, and his four goals in 2013-14 follow a similar regression pattern.
For now, it appears that Santos Laguna striker Oribe Peralta, who ranked third in the 2014 Clausura with eight goals and fourth with 54 shot attempts, has become Mexico's primary option in the attack. Meanwhile, Cruz Azul striker Marco Fabian ranked fifth in the 2014 Clausura with seven goals, and sat just behind Peralta with 53 shot attempts in the 16-game season.
Both players are poised to play significant roles in Mexico's attack at the World Cup, and Herrera's inclusion of Villarreal attacker Giovani dos Santos (10 goals in La Liga, second most on his team) is another sign that Hernandez will be pushed to earn his minutes. Although dos Santos could theoretically play in the midfield of Herrera's 5-3-2, he has made 24 of his 25 starts as a striker in La Liga this season, and similar to Salcido, dos Santos' inclusion in the 23-man roster is a sign that Herrera is not fully convinced of his starters at the striker position.
Can Rafa Marquez anchor the central defense?
At 35 years old, Marquez is in a position to be the first player to captain his team in four World Cup tournaments. His intangible qualities across the back line are clearly an asset, but statistically it is unclear whether his return to the national team has been a net positive. Mexico conceded a region-low 5.8 shots per game throughout the hexagonal round of World Cup qualifying; however, when Marquez returned for the critical final two games of the round, the team conceded 8.5 shots per game. At the same time, Leon conceded 12.7 shots per game in the 2014 Clausura when Marquez was in the lineup, compared to 11.1 when the veteran was not on the field.
Granted, Leon is in the finals of the 2014 Clausura, and Marquez has played a significant role, but the fact remains that compared to the 2013 Apertura season, opponents this season are averaging four more touches per game against Leon in the central area of the attacking third, while also completing more passes and creating more chances in the zone that Marquez is chiefly responsible for defending.
This attacking trend from opponents is not a good sign for Mexico against particularly strong attacking teams like Group A opponent Brazil, and if Marquez ends up needing extra support from his other two center-backs in Herrera's 5-3-2 formation, there could be a domino effect that limits the ability of the outside backs to get forward and join the attack.
Outlook
Despite the team's shaky World Cup qualifying performance, there are still some positives to take away heading into Brazil. Mexico created a region-high 8.2 chances per game through the hexagonal World Cup qualifiers, and also led the region with 139.4 attacking-third touches per game and an 85.5 percent pass completion percentage.
However, Herrera's player selections in key areas of the field create uncertainty as to how established veterans will blend into the principles of his 5-3-2 formation. Thankfully for Herrera, the bar is not set as high as it could be given the state of the team prior to World Cup qualifying, but if these particular questions are not answered in Mexico's remaining tuneup games, there is clear potential for the team to struggle and potentially miss out on the knockout round.
By Adrian Melville
Mexico's final round of World Cup qualifying was supposed to be the continuation of what looked like a golden age of football within the country. The country captured a U-17 World Cup in 2011, followed by Olympic gold in 2012, and on top of that the senior team marched to a perfect third round of CONCACAF World Cup qualifying, outscoring opponents 15-2. At that point, it appeared Mexico had established itself as the regional power not just in its current state, but also for years to come.
That all changed in the hexagonal round of World Cup qualifying, where a fourth-place finish, with an assist from the U.S., forced Mexico into a two-leg playoff with Oceania Confederation champion New Zealand, and prompted four coaching changes over a six-week span.
The team and its supporters hope that ugliness is behind them, and current manager Miguel Herrera has already named his 23-man roster in hopes that the team can take extra time to build chemistry going into the World Cup. Still, there is apprehension among Mexico supporters given the team's recent past and based on Herrera's selections for the final roster. Here are three key questions Mexico faces less than a month before it begins its quest to advance past the World Cup quarterfinals for the first time since 1986.
What role will Carlos Salcido play?
Herrera has not called Salcido in to play for Mexico since taking over as manager in October, even though the defender had participated in eight of the team's 10 hexagonal-round games. Given that Herrera prefers to play a 5-3-2 formation -- where the outside backs have a deeper starting point to get forward and essentially serve as outside midfielders -- it is difficult to imagine what role the 34-year-old Salcido will play as a member of the 23-man roster.
If Herrera envisions Salcido as depth at the outside back position, the manager will first need to determine what side is best for the Tigres defender to reside on. Salcido was a staple on the left side for Mexico throughout qualifying and ranked third on the team with 64.1 touches per 90 minutes (minimum five appearances), but in the 2014 Clausura the versatile defender spent most of his time on the right side and ranked third on Tigres with 64.7 touches per 90 minutes.
Salcido has displayed an ability to get forward for both club and country, and even though he completed 85 percent of his passes in the attacking half playing predominantly on the right side with Tigres compared to an 80 percent completion rate on the left for Mexico, the defender also created 1.0 chance per 90 minutes in World Cup qualifying as opposed to just 0.5 per 90 minutes in the 2014 Clausura.
Salcido's inclusion in the final 23-man roster despite no previous call-ups by Herrera is a signal that the manager has not completely settled on either outside back position, and the fact that he used three different pairings in the outside back positions through recent friendlies suggests that this is a significant issue. Meanwhile, the team's group-stage opponents include Brazilian star Neymar, who ranks second in La Liga with 9.9 take-ons per 90 minutes, and a Croatia team that ranked third in 2014 UEFA qualifying with 28.2 cross attempts per game. So Herrera will undoubtedly be watching this position closely over the next month.
Will Javier Hernandez lead Mexico's attack?
Hernandez became the star of the Mexican national team at the 2010 World Cup, and in the following four seasons with Manchester United, he further cemented his status in his country's starting lineup. But even though Hernandez led all Mexico players with 807 minutes throughout the 10-game hexagonal round, he provided just two goals (both in a 2-2 draw versus Honduras), and he seems to be suffering from a crisis in confidence for both club and country.
The concern with Hernandez's form is not entirely new, as the 25-year-old striker has seen his club minutes decline every season since joining United in 2010-11, and his four goals in 2013-14 follow a similar regression pattern.
For now, it appears that Santos Laguna striker Oribe Peralta, who ranked third in the 2014 Clausura with eight goals and fourth with 54 shot attempts, has become Mexico's primary option in the attack. Meanwhile, Cruz Azul striker Marco Fabian ranked fifth in the 2014 Clausura with seven goals, and sat just behind Peralta with 53 shot attempts in the 16-game season.
Both players are poised to play significant roles in Mexico's attack at the World Cup, and Herrera's inclusion of Villarreal attacker Giovani dos Santos (10 goals in La Liga, second most on his team) is another sign that Hernandez will be pushed to earn his minutes. Although dos Santos could theoretically play in the midfield of Herrera's 5-3-2, he has made 24 of his 25 starts as a striker in La Liga this season, and similar to Salcido, dos Santos' inclusion in the 23-man roster is a sign that Herrera is not fully convinced of his starters at the striker position.
Can Rafa Marquez anchor the central defense?
At 35 years old, Marquez is in a position to be the first player to captain his team in four World Cup tournaments. His intangible qualities across the back line are clearly an asset, but statistically it is unclear whether his return to the national team has been a net positive. Mexico conceded a region-low 5.8 shots per game throughout the hexagonal round of World Cup qualifying; however, when Marquez returned for the critical final two games of the round, the team conceded 8.5 shots per game. At the same time, Leon conceded 12.7 shots per game in the 2014 Clausura when Marquez was in the lineup, compared to 11.1 when the veteran was not on the field.
Granted, Leon is in the finals of the 2014 Clausura, and Marquez has played a significant role, but the fact remains that compared to the 2013 Apertura season, opponents this season are averaging four more touches per game against Leon in the central area of the attacking third, while also completing more passes and creating more chances in the zone that Marquez is chiefly responsible for defending.
This attacking trend from opponents is not a good sign for Mexico against particularly strong attacking teams like Group A opponent Brazil, and if Marquez ends up needing extra support from his other two center-backs in Herrera's 5-3-2 formation, there could be a domino effect that limits the ability of the outside backs to get forward and join the attack.
Outlook
Despite the team's shaky World Cup qualifying performance, there are still some positives to take away heading into Brazil. Mexico created a region-high 8.2 chances per game through the hexagonal World Cup qualifiers, and also led the region with 139.4 attacking-third touches per game and an 85.5 percent pass completion percentage.
However, Herrera's player selections in key areas of the field create uncertainty as to how established veterans will blend into the principles of his 5-3-2 formation. Thankfully for Herrera, the bar is not set as high as it could be given the state of the team prior to World Cup qualifying, but if these particular questions are not answered in Mexico's remaining tuneup games, there is clear potential for the team to struggle and potentially miss out on the knockout round.
